Autism Spectrum Disorder and Infant vaccines

An easy math look at VAERS reports

Review of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) adverse event reports following vaccinations - review with percentages from the VAERS database.

Adverse events, like ASD do occur at the background population rate. Numbers for influenza (FLU3) are included for comparison purposes.

For comparison purposes across multiple vaccines, let’s first examine reports of fever following immunization in 1 year olds for selected vaccines.

For the DTAP vaccine, there are 3989 reports out of a total of 13,940 reports or 0.286 or 28.6% of the VAERS reports for 1 years receiving DTAP reported fever. For comparison to other vaccines: HEP 38.6%, HIBV 39.4%, IPV 34.5%, MMR 41.5%, and PNC 32.6%. These numbers are reasonably close to each other with expected variations. These percentages do not account for the fraction of 1 year olds who did not have any symptoms - including them would lower each of the calculated percentages.

For ASD adverse events, the percentages for 1 year olds are 6VAX-F 2.0%, DTAP 1.2%, FLU3 0.6%, HEP 2.8%, HIBV 1.4%, IPV 1.3%, MMR 3.4%, MMRV 1.1%, and PNC 1.1%. These percentages need to be adjusted for the 1 year olds with no symptoms (lowering these percentages to roughly half these values).

For ASD adverse events for 2 year old infants, the percentages are 6VAX-F 2.3%, DTAP 1.2%, FLU3 0.2%, HEP 3.6%, HIBV 1.5%, IPV 1.6%, MMR 5.0%, MMRV 1.1%, and PNC 1.0%. These percentages need to be adjusted for 2 year olds with no symptoms (lowering these percentages to roughly half these values).

The yearly ASD population frequency in the United States is 1 in 32 or 3.1%.

The ASD adverse events for MMR are reported with 24 hours (22.2%), 48 hours (+ 5.1%), 72 hours (+2.1%), and 96 hours (+0.7%). These ASD reports are likely subject to reporting bias and are potentially higher.

The MMRV vaccine overlaps the MMR vaccine but has lower ASD adverse events (1.5% vs. 5.0% for 2 year olds). Some common excipient(s) or manufacturing contaminat(s) is/are most likely associated with these ASD adverse events. Given the multiple vaccine with ASD adverse events higher than 0.2% (influenza background ASD event level for 2 year olds), common manufacturing contaminants are a leading candidate to investigate. Dr. Geoff Pain has multiple Substack posts pointing towards endotoxins as the most likely manufacturing contaminant.

This is a free substack.